The Last Harvest, Part 3: Historical Parallels
Detailed comparisons to past industry collapses and what we can learn from them
[Authors note: this is the third of an eight-part series for an ongoing research piece and the analyses will be expanded with new research and insights. Please subscribe for further updates.]
THE LAST HARVEST SERIES
Synopsis
Part 1 of 8: Labor Market
Part 2 of 8: Economy & Policy
Part 3 of 8: Historical Parallels (You are here)
Part 4 of 8: Global Markets
Part 5 of 8: Water Resources
Part 6-8: [Coming soon]
The collapse of American farming is not happening as some unique event—it follows the same economic patterns that have devastated entire industries before. From the Rust Belt’s manufacturing decline to the downfall of coal towns and the gutting of the U.S. steel industry, the cycle is unmistakable:
A Dominant Industry Anchors a Region’s Economy – Entire towns and communities depend on one sector for survival.
Economic Shifts Introduce New Pressures – Consolidation, labor displacement, automation, and government policy changes create instability.
Small Players Are Pushed Out First – Larger corporations adapt, while independent businesses and local enterprises collapse.
The Industry Falls, and the Local Economy Implodes – Jobs disappear, businesses shutter, migration accelerates, and the region never fully recovers.
We’ve seen this play out before. Now, it’s coming for American agriculture.
Manufacturing & The Rust Belt (1970s-Present) – Offshoring, automation, and corporate consolidation hollowed out the once-thriving industrial centers of the Midwest, leaving behind economic wastelands.
Coal Towns & Energy Shifts (1980s-Present) – Mechanization and policy changes wiped out coal jobs, devastating entire regions that depended on them.
The U.S. Steel Industry (1980s-Present) – Trade policies, foreign competition, and corporate restructuring dismantled the steel industry, gutting local economies.
In each case, the warning signs were there, but the collapse was still devastating. Agriculture is now standing at the same precipice. The difference? If farms disappear, it’s not just jobs and towns at stake—it’s food security, supply chains, and the survival of rural America itself.
THE LAST HARVEST SERIES
Synopsis
Part 1 of 8: Labor Market
Part 2 of 8: Economy & Policy
Part 3 of 8: Historical Parallels (You are here)
Part 4 of 8: Global Markets
Part 5 of 8: Water Resources
Part 6-8: [Coming soon]
[Author’s note: this complete series is in draft form. References, sources, and citations will soon follow. If for any reason you find material on here that you have copyright ownership to and would like for me to immediately include credit or remove complete, please email me directly at chris@questioningrural.com.]