The Last Harvest, Part 5: Water & Resource & Ecological Constraints
Comprehensive exploration of our water crisis, irrigation challenges, and the technological adaptations needed
[Authors note: this is the fifth of an eight-part series for an ongoing research piece and the analyses will be expanded with new research and insights. Please subscribe for further updates.]
THE LAST HARVEST SERIES
Synopsis
Part 1 of 8: Labor Market
Part 2 of 8: Economy & Policy
Part 3 of 8: Historical Parallels
Part 4 of 8: Global Markets
Part 5 of 8: Water Resources (You are here)
Part 6-8: [Coming soon]
By now, if you haven't caught on, I've strictly been talking about agriculture crops because it's the part of the agriculture industry I'm most familiar with. Here is a fun stat: there are just as many cattle and dairy farms with just as much farmland as those who strictly grow crops. Well, I guess it's not really such a fun fact in this context.
When I was doing quick research to fact-check my notes before posting, I thought the 'Geopolitical' section was going to be the most cumbersome as it's the one I have the least experience with. No, the the tangled interactions of the variety of disciplines—agronomy, climatology, geology, hydrology—have endless and complex variables and data. There is no shortage of factors that impact farming—biodiversity, climate, inputs, land, and soil. Agriculture's diversity is difficult to fit neatly into one universal narrative. What affects a citrus farm in Florida is not the same as what threatens a corn field in Missouri.
I won’t drown you in climate models, overwhelm you with endless variables, or lose you in the weeds of resource management. Instead, I’ll focus on just one thing. One thing every farm depends on. One thing so essential, so universal, that its absence reduces every innovation, every adaptation, every ounce of human ingenuity to dust.
Water.
More than a necessity, water is the unshakable foundation of agriculture—the difference between abundance and ruin, between a harvest and a wasteland. Without it, no breakthrough in technology, no revolution in soil health, no climate strategy, however sophisticated, can keep food production alive. Water is the great limiter, the final threshold, the line we cannot afford to cross. And here’s why:
Water is finite and fading: Unlike the air that we breathe or sunlight that shines on our fields, freshwater is running out—consumed faster than nature can restore it.
Water is becoming lost beyond return: Soil can be replenished. Forests can regrow. But when an aquifer dries up or a water source turns toxic, it is gone forever.
Water adds an exponential factor: Water scarcity does not strike alone. It tightens the noose on every other crisis—droughts last longer, soil erodes faster, production costs spiral, and climate volatility turns unpredictable seasons into unmanageable disasters.
Water loss means inescapable collapse: Land can be managed. Crops can be engineered. Farming methods can evolve. But without water? None of it matters.
This crisis isn’t creeping toward us—it is here. The wells have dropped, the rivers have retreated, and when the last of it is gone, the fields won’t just wither. They will die. The earth won’t just go dry—it will turn against us.
The soil seeps. The cracks creep. The flow falters… fades… fails.
Starved roots. Splintered earth. Silence.
No, this is not a distant catastrophe—it is a countdown. And when the clock strikes zero, the winds will carry away the remains of our remaining harvest.
5.1. Irrigation and its Origins
The first Agricultural Revolution for humanity began around 10,000 BCE. This is when we shifted from being hunter-gatherers to stationary farmers as we know them today. There was a second Agricultural Revolution that began around 300 years ago that involved rapid mechanization and increases in production. To date, the least amount of innovation or change in agriculture crop farming can be found in water management with irrigation. While not the only factors, geography and topology are what mostly influence the method of irrigation (as they also incorporate major factors such as climate, soil, and crop type). It's helpful to know the different irrigation types that distribute our water to crops and where that water is sourced.
Irrigation Types
Flood irrigation is one of the oldest irrigation methods (dating back to thousands of years). Natural waterways or large-scale canals are how the water is initially transported, thus the name. It is used in nearly half of irrigated farmland and consumes more than 60% of all agriculture water. It's also the least efficient method of transporting water at just 40-60% efficiency. There is a reason it's been a mainstay. The equipment used for this type of irrigation is the least expensive to install, operate, and maintain.
The other types of irrigation include sprinkler systems, center pivots, and drip irrigation—with each being increasingly more efficient but also more expensive per acre to utilize.
Water Sources
For agriculture, there are two major sources: surface water and groundwater. Surface water includes rivers, canals, and reservoirs (basically above ground). About 40% of agriculture uses this source. It's accessible, has better recharge potential, and is less energy-intensive—but it is also highly volatile and has the lowest efficiency rate at 40-70% while suffering from runoff and evaporation.
The other source, groundwater, is where 60% of agriculture extracts water from shallow and deep wells. This source provides a more stable supply but it replenishes at a fraction of the rate that it is being used. Shallow wells have a 50-80% efficiency rate and they are becoming unreliable due to depletion. Deep wells have a 70-90% efficiency rate but, as you will see below, they come at a high costs—both economically and environmentally.
Neither of these sources are being managed sustainably. But at this point, “unsustainable” feels like an understatement—a word too soft for the reality of what’s happening. Groundwater isn’t just being overused; it’s being permanently crippled, like draining a retirement fund with no way to replenish it. And with that analogy, let me anthropomorphize how we are treating water right now. To us, it feels like water will never run out. It's just... there. How could it go away? It almost feels abstract. So I will paint a picture for you with something that you may not, ironically, take as for granted: money.
5.2. Contaminants
When it comes to irrigation, it's not just the quantity that we need to be concerned about. Crops especially require high-quality water as well. Unfortunately, not only are we overusing the resources but we are contributing to its contamination.
5.3. Is the Cup Half Empty or Half Full?
Freshwater is unquestionably the most valuable natural resource that we have. This isn't an exaggeration. We have oil & natural gas, arable land, forests & timber, and rare earth minerals. None of those resources, nothing—economically, agriculturally, or biologically—functions without freshwater.
Ogallala Di Da
During the American Revolution our soldiers used an Uno Reverse card with the song Yankee Doodle. In similar fashion, most living in the middle of the country have taken the term 'flyover states' and use it as a badge of pride. Much of this area is also known as the Heartland. If anything deserves to be considered the proverbial heart of the United States, it's difficult to contend with the Ogallala Aquifer.
The Ogallala Aquifer formed 12,000 years ago from melting glaciers. is the largest freshwater source we have, spanning 175,000 square miles beneath the Great Plains, with a depth being 1,000 feet at its deepest point. If you've never heard of this source, that's understandable. Nearly all of it is at least 100 feet underground. I encourage you to check out other information sources for how extraordinary this aquifer is for us and you can learn everything you'd like. I on the other hand am going to share with you a bit of information that you probably won't like so much (actually, you shouldn't).
There was an expansion of groundwater pumping in the 1940s-1950s that was driven by fossil fuel-powered pumps. Reports have shown places where the water level of the Ogallala has already fallen 100 to 200 feet. The Ogallala recharges itself at ~1 inch per year. We use so much water from it that only 10% of what we extra is replenished annually. Yes, we use 10x as much water as it is capable of replacing itself.
It supplies over 80% of the region's drinking water. More than 90% of the groundwater pumped from the aquifer is used for irrigation. It alone is utilized for 60% of irrigation from groundwater and provides nearly one-third of total irrigation, making it the single most important water source we have. And it has already been confirmed unrecoverable in some areas.
Floridan in Flux
So we just move to the next largest water source, right? Fortunately, the best news we have about the Floridan Aquifer is that it has a high replenish rate. In areas where it is unconfined or semi-confined, it can recharge approximately 10-25 inches per year. That's at least better than the ole slowpoke of the Ogallala.
Here's the issue. The Floridan Aquifer flows throughout a type of landscape that's called karst. Limestone. Overextraction in various regions causes large areas of land to begin to gradually lower. That's called subsidence. That takes awhile to happen so you probably aren't as familiar with it as you are with it's much quicker-to-appear sister, sinkholes.
Some studies claim success—that we're not over-extracting the aquifer—but they're a bit misleading which is caused from the higher replenish rate. It is like if I pull a rug out from under you and place it back down quickly, I can claim to everyone else that the rug is still in the same place so there's no way you're hurt. While half true, people who didn't see it and only listen to me move on with their day. Meanwhile you're trying to pick yourself back up with hardly anyone's help. I'm sure the Ph. D's and corporate studies will unironically dissipate from being cited while regions begin to quite literally collapse. (Un)fun fact: Sinkholes and subsidence aren't even the most frequent or severe concern we have. It is just the second-largest issue we have with the Floridan Aquifer.
The most prevalent issue: nutrient pollution. This issue is shared with the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer. This aquifer has 90% of its extracted water being used for irrigation. But as easily accessible surface-level and groundwater sources become more unreliable, deeper wells are dug. While the Floridan Aquifer is the 2nd largest behind the Ogallala, The Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer sits atop the Mississippi Embayment Aquifer, which is also our 3rd largest underground water source.
Mississippi, maybe?
While the Mississippi Embayment is #3 on the list of size, it comes in as our #2 most used groundwater source. The Floridan Aquifer has almost 4 billion gallons of water withdrawn per day. The Mississippi Embayment loses about 11 billion gallons of water each day. The Ogallala Aquifer: 17.5 billion is extracted. Yes. Those are billions with a B. And that is each day.
Water doesn't sit alone as the only resource that is over-extracted though. The land that is farmed on is just as overused—except worst than the soil erosion that is also an issue (yes, there's many more issues than listed in this article)—the consistent farming of land causes nutrient pollution. This is where what we essentially farm the land so much that the nutrients from the soil begin to deplete faster than they can replenish (hm, recurring theme, huh?). This happens quickly enough that each year farmers need to lay chemicals such as nitrogen and phosphorous across the soil so that there will be enough for the crops to actually have the nutrients they need to grow.
Since the soil's nutrients have been depleted, farmers can't lay "just enough" down because unfortunately, not all of it is able to make its way to the crops. The excess of chemical flows and finds its way into our water sources. Given the name, I'm sure you can guess where the groundwater extracted from the Mississippi aquifers and irrigated onto the fields eventually find the water carrying these contaminants—the Mississippi River. The river basin that produces over 90% over our nation's agricultural exports and nearly 80% of the entire world's exports in feed grains and soybeans.
Say it ain't Salt
There are times when there is drought, low rain and snowfall, and now increasing nutrient pollution, where our surface water sources such as the Mississippi and Colorado Rivers aren't capable of providing what is needed to irrigate. When this happens, farms often turn to the shallow wells to use underground sources. As these shallow wells become unreliable, deeper wells are drilled into confined aquifers, such as the Mississippi Embayment and Floridan Aquifer. And this is where we have the most concerning issue based on severity.
It's salt.
Salt prevents plants from absorbing water through osmosis, leading to dehydration and crop failure. At best, salinity buildup reduces permeability (essentially how easily water and nutrients move through soil to reach plants) which cuts yields by 10-15%. At worst, if soil becomes too salty, crops die. Sounds bad doesn't it? Well, that's not the worst part.
A major concern with deep well extraction is saltwater intrusion. This is where excessive pumping from groundwater sources allow ways for saltwater to enter into an aquifer. Unlike seawater, which is a continuous and replenishing body, an aquifer functions as a storage tank—once it’s contaminated with salt, it does not easily flush out. Surely it's not as bad as it seems though. We would just now have some dead crops and our new fancy desalinization technology can be used to give us our quality water back, right?
Wrong. While salt infiltration into the soil may render the farmland unproductive for years or decades, which has a very high cost to remedy in and of itself. The same can't be said for our aquifers. Excessive pumping reduces freshwater pressure, allowing saltwater from the ocean to seep into the underground reservoirs. And that's where it contrasts and is the worst part. There is a difference between manageable damage and irreversible events. Saltwater intrusion into our groundwater sources permanently contaminates freshwater, rendering them unusable forever.
The Floridan Aquifer and Mississippi aquifers, and others closest to the coast, are much more susceptible to these severities. For aquifers such as the Ogallala, you would think with it in the middle of our continent, it would be safe from salt or seawater. Yet overextraction changes geological formations that will pull up deeper, saltier water, increasing groundwater salinity over time.
Even if no additional deep wells were ever drilled starting today and water extraction completely stopped from them moving forward, the land subsidence and infrastructure that degrades will create new pathways for salinization over time. Multiple ticking time bombs have been started. We've put into motion inevitable, disastrous ecological feedback loops. More and more is being taken from less and less. If you're on a plane and the pilots start removing the windows so more people have access to airflow, you may question that. During descent if you then see them out dismantling the wings to cut off dead weight and get to the destination faster, you may think of this article and realize taking more and more from less and less doesn't end so smoothly. Surely somebody will step in, up, or out for us to do... I don't know. Something!
5.4. Failed Leadership: The Illusion of Solutions
This is when we need leadership the most. Or empathy at the very least. Instead of tackling the root issue—overuse—governments continue to push expensive, logistically flawed infrastructure projects to shift water away from one region to another. These plans do nothing to reduce demand. They simply redistribute scarcity. It's one thing to spread risk. It's a completely different thing to say, "well at least I got mine."
The Central Arizona Project
The Colorado River Compact (1922) divided the river's water between seven U.S. states and Mexico. There were then large-scale projects such as the Hoover Dam (1936) and Glen Canyon Dam (1963) that diverted massive amounts of water before the water even reached Arizona. In the early 1990's, one of the largest water infrastructure projects was completed after 20 years of construction that cost $4 billion. A 336-mile canal system diverts a significant portion of the Colorado River's flow to supply Phoenix, Tucson, and surrounding agricultural areas in Arizona. Add persistent droughts in the Southwest. The once lush, thriving ecosystem Delta in Mexico—the Colorado River no longer makes it to the ocean.
I have to give credit where credit is due. CAP's commitment to transparency, education, and governance with public representation is commendable. The debt repayment will continue for another 20 years. They've experienced unexpected energy costs spike and the continued dwindling Colorado River with reduced supplies, not to mention the ongoing maintenance. Farmers who utilize approximately 30% receive special subsidies, though those are now on the chopping block. While Arizona has been one of my favorite states to visit in the country, I don't live there. Maybe a resident could ask a local farmer how they will manage the upcoming decreased water supply with simultaneous increase in costs for that water. I anticipate we won't be seeing an increase in the number of small family-farms for Arizona.
Missouri River Aqueduct Proposal
If anyone has any free history books, I encourage you to send them to: 1773 N Road B, Ulysses, Kansas, 67880. The Kansas Aqueduct Coalition is currently leading the repeated advocacy for the Missouri River Aqueduct Proposal. Estimated at $20-30 billion dollars, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers initially proposed and envisioned this 375-mile canal to transport water from Northeast to Southwest Kansas. I guess since Kansas shares a border with Missouri where they have access to a whopping 75 miles of the nearly 2,500-mile river, they have plenty of reason to disregard the overwhelming negative economic and environmental impacts. For the rest of the people downstream, "At least I got mine."
Other (not so) Thoughtful Solutions
Is it understandable that our leaders have not come up with better solutions? Since the signing of the Declaration of Independence to now, the U.S. population has experienced 100x growth. As cities became meccas and the Industrial Revolution improved productivity, increased rate of water usage has grown significantly. Have there been enough problems, or very much time, for leaders to actually consider the different issues and possible solutions?
The first time anyone even mentioned early signs of any sort of water crisis was... oh... a mere 130 years ago. Okay, that may have been quite some time. Though in the grand scheme, it's been a century since the Dust Bowl. So, why worry? There was the prolonged drought in the Northeast and it's been 60 years since then. Environmental damages haven't begun being taken somewhat seriously until the past 50 years. There was The Farm Crisis of the 1980's. Wait, we had a farm crisis in the 80's? We did, but it's barely been 30 years since the escalating concerns of aging infrastructure. The downplaying of the severity of the public health disaster from the Flint, Michigan water crisis was hardly even 10 years ago.
Oh. Okay, I get it. It's been so long ago since we have even had any issues... Or, wait. No. There just hasn't been much time to plan... or, wait a minute...
This is maybe the part in the writeup where you thought you were reading a research article and are wondering why it's starting to sound like a cynical op-ed. Well, frankly. It's because I'm infuriated. And you should be too.
If you are in any role or leadership position reading this and right now you are thinking, "Oh come on... Look at all we've done!"
You haven't. done. enough.
Some policies implemented include water usage measurements. These measurement are self-reported. Clearly those with integrity will provide as accurate information as they can, while those who use and abuse have no check in place. It's nearly all calculated with practically napkin math. Flow meters for irrigation pumps are equipment that record the velocity of water coming from a pump and it calculates an estimated gallons per hour. They are expensive at best. At worst, due to their design and measurement methodologies, they are often inaccurate and unreliable. They are highly temperamental, demanding constant adjustments and repairs. Instead of functioning as intended, they waste a farmer's time—diverting efforts to fixing a minor component when attention is needed elsewhere.
If you've ever talked to an overworked, stressed out farmer whose running on 2 hours of sleep and by a field when it's 105 degrees out and they need to be driving a sprayer but they're stuck trying to fix a "(explicit words) piece of (explicit words)", well then you have some understanding. It's why they wish those who made decisions that affected them and built things for them would may consider visiting a farm to see what it's like in-the-day-of-a-life. On one hand there have been funding programs that will cover expenses for this sort of equipment, where there are success cases. More often there are added burdens and operational costs—farmers ditch them after. On the other hand, there have been regulations demanding farmers to cut groundwater use by 10-15%. This is even with the known measurement issues. These are the best solutions?
Another fallback policy besides limiting water usage is introducing water allocations. I'm almost exhausted at this point of the ineptitude. So, just Google the term and you will immediately see how infighting and corruption has caused this tool to be hardly effective.
I'll conclude that THE most failed leadership illusion of solution has been the idea that, "We don't have a water supply problem. We just have a distribution problem." That thinking has repeatedly, time and time again, led to solutions that just pass the problems off to someone else.
We need better leadership.
5.5. PumpTrakr & Conservation Tech
Why irrigation technology is hard and conservation adoption has been slow
Soil Moisture Sensors
Automated Irrigation - PumpTrakr
5.6. If We Keep Business as Usual
The growing (un)incentives to change
Water policies are based on outdated climate assumptions
The overuse feedback loop to collapse
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Every issue we've discussed—labor shortages and land ownership, investments and regulations, imports and exports and conservation efforts—each has been a system humans have created, controlled, and mostly tried predicting.
Here is the truth very few have accepted or even believe: once you look up from what is happening right now in each of those systems, the certainty of predictability ends. I'm going to repeat that for emphasis: the certainty of predictability ends. As odd as it may seem, putting a percentage on ANY (un)likely event is simply irrational reasoning. Yet it's done—even by the best experts in all of these domains. And since all of these systems are so intertwined and interdependent, I will share with you how our entire society has been making decisions from sets of numbers that are stacked one after another and we've built multiple houses of cards.
Few seem to accept the answer of, "We don't know." And fewer seem to care.
THE LAST HARVEST SERIES
Synopsis
Part 1 of 8: Labor Market
Part 2 of 8: Economy & Policy
Part 3 of 8: Historical Parallels
Part 4 of 8: Global Markets
Part 5 of 8: Water Resources (You are here)
Part 6-8: [Coming soon]
[Author’s note: this complete series is in draft form. References, sources, and citations will soon follow. If for any reason you find material on here that you have copyright ownership to and would like for me to immediately include credit or remove complete, please email me directly at chris@questioningrural.com.]